Help understanding theory of knowledge.

[Steven_S_Prevette@RL.gov]

>"A statement devoid of rational prediction does not convey knowledge."

>Let's take an example of a statement.

>"My name is Vic"

Prediction requires knowledge of variation of the process.  This may seem a
little strange, but let us really look at your name.  Your name probably
does not read "Vic Forte" on every piece of identification, or every mailing
list.  "Vic", I assume, is a nickname.  Your birth certificate probably says
something different (Victor, I assume, possibly also has a middle name).  So
there actually is variation in your name.  My prediction is that you will
continue to respond when someone says "Hello Vic", and if a piece of postal
mail was addressed to "Victor Forte", you would still get it (assuming the
rest of the address was correct).  

Most of us in the United States can get mail delivered to us as "Occupant".


One almost needs to know the operational definition of a "name" - the owner
responds to it, and others recognize the owner by that designation. 

If I were to mistype your email address, I predict you will not get this
message.

Okay, that is stretching things.  Let us take the statement "I made 10
widgets today".  Knowing this does not impart any knowledge about the
process that made the widgets.  It is only a single datum point.  It is not
necessarily a good prediction of how many will be made tomorrow. A control
chart would allow us to know IF we could make a prediction (are the data in
control?).  If the data are in control, I could then predict that I will
make 10 widgets plus or minus some margin every day into the future, as long
as the process does not change.  Of course, the margin is the 3 standard
deviation control limits.


Steve Prevette
ESH Planning and Performance
Fluor Hanford, A Fluor Global Services Company
ASQ Certified Quality Engineer
steven_s_prevette@rl.gov
509-373-9371
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