Fighting the Merit Cycle-Help

[rderoeck@alphaind.com]

The media provides many examples that can be used to 
demonstrate the importance of variation and sound statistical thinking. The following example is one I have 
used for SPC training and have found useful. I show an
overhead of the front headline of a newspaper.

Boston Herald (Dec 23, 1996)

"Murders Sink To 30-Year Low"

"....major crime such as homicide is down. Over the last 
two years there has been a 52% reduction in shootings.....
that's a dramatic difference....Police Commissioner Paul
Evans has succeeded where others have fell short...."

I then hand out the following table.

Year            Homicide

1964               52
1965               57
1966               58
1967               71
1968              102
1969               91
1970              114
1971              116
1972              104
1973              135
1974              134
1975              119
1976               81
1977               75
1978               71
1979               92
1980               91
1981              100
1982               93
1983               90
1984               82
1985               88
1986              106
1987               75
1988               95
1989              100
1990              152
1991              113
1992               78
1993               96
1994               85
1995               96
1996               61

I then present the following scenario:

Paul Evans reports to you and is asking for a substantial
merit increase based on his job performance (reducing the
homicide rate). He has been Commissioner since 1993.

Working in teams, answer the following question (provide a
statistical analysis):

1.Does his performance warrant a merit increase?
2.Explain your reasoning.

Perhaps a bit morbid, but it is an attention grabber.

Rich DeRoeck
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