Re: British Election turnout - one of the lowest: Special case or common cause?

["John Bruman" <jbruman@precisiondie.com>]

Here's a very lucid example of the need for process knowledge as
well as statistical skills.
A quick scan of the charts prompts these questions:
*How many years between elections? (What is the frame we're
dealing with?)
*What are the contributing forces or variables of the process?
(Why the apparently high figures for periods 8 and 9?)
*Should we be analyzing this in one continuous time period or in
three cycles of 7 periods? (are there some
socio-economic-political forces creating suspect mean shifts every
7 periods?)

Beyond these questions, I would say that using the data to prove
voter apathy is a leap of faith that is typical of media types
when faced with statistical data. The possible cyclical patterns
suggest a periodic shifting of the data mean values that are
likely more complex than mere apathy.
Anybody agree?
JB