RE: British Election turnout - one of the lowest: Special case or

["Bawn, Loren" <LBAWN@dhs.state.ia.us>]

kvaria@uk.cgeyc.com sends along some election turnout data and asks if a
headline is justified.  I agree that a special cause was signaled by the
most recent turnout figure.  Interestingly, Wheeler's constants (from
"Building Continual Improvement") generate narrower limits than does +/-
3stdev. I seem to recall Wheeler mentioning in the book that his reasoning
for using the constants (rather than sigma) is complex and likely difficult
to follow for someone who is not a statistician.  Any DENizens who could put
the rationale in layman's terms?   

Back to the election results, whether the cause is voter apathy or not would
require system knowledge, and it seems highly likely that an investigation
would suggest that any number of special causes may have been at play.  For
example, here in the US, turn-out is generally much lower for elections in
which few or no high-visibility national offices are on the ballot, or when
the pre-election polls indicate a landslide.  Weather is also a significant
factor in local elections, but tends to cancel out on national elections.

Also, I agree with Carlos Méndez that a person interested in the system may
want to look at the mid-80's to see what "near special" cause may have been
at play.

Keep the Faith,
Loren Bawn
Executive Officer for Community Systems
Iowa Department of Human Services