REQUEST: Predictive Modeling and Tampering

[rjohnson@viabridge.com]

Following is a non-subscriber's request that is essentially off topic for the DEN, so if you
can help this person, please reply directly at rjohnson@viabridge.com and not to the DEN.  Thanks.


I have recently become interested in the issue of managing system service levels. There are several software products that monitor performance of hardware, networks, applications and databases.  In fact, some monitors include predictive modeling techniques to predict failure of hardware and / or predict the decline of throughput (i.e., below acceptable "standards").  In some cases they suggest that actions be taken to prioritize traffic to maintain service levels.  This may seem reasonable from a Theory of Constraints point of view (i.e., subordinating other activities to the constraint), but I am concerned that if people and systems are continually repriortizing traffic in different parts of the system, it is just an automated form of tampering.  I would appreciate any suggestions for readings regarding predictive modeling and their impact on variation.

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