Flickering bulb

["John Constantine" <thesfg1@cox.net>]

Fellow DENizens, 

Occasionally I have had the good fortune to be on the receiving end of
enough energy to provide for a flickering of my mental light bulb.

Such was the case when I was re-reading some material on sampling and TNE.
In the past I had a hard time digesting the difference between enumerative
studies and analytical studies and what impact each would have. Of course I
recognized that Deming made an issue of this difference, but I just didn't
"get it".

Out of the blue (and currently rainy) skies came the simple matter of
inferring from what was essentially a counting process (that of enumeration)
what would likely happen at some future point in time. The Census, a
counting process, could be framed in many ways, and relationships deduced;
e.g., how many persons with disabilities who had graduate degrees in
herpetology lived in Nebraska?

Analyzing what the limitations of program x's expenditures would likely be
in the near future (within control limits) was a different matter entirely.
Whereas the counting process required that one stay inside the frame,
prediction demanded historical data over time, as well as the utilization of
some mechanism to display and/or explain what variation takes place and
whether or not it is stable or unstable.

Alright, so what? So, when trying to explain to an administrator that trying
to cut programs by 15% would introduce additional variation into
departments, programs and services and would likely increase costs, reducing
services to the public and cost jobs, the silence was deafening. Suggesting
that straight lining into the future from accounting in the past was no
guarantee of making improvement in the current budgetary crisis, started the
water in the fish tank shivering. Eyes glazed over, there was shortness of
breath, and papers started to slip from file folders.

Of course, I did suggest alternatives that would be more positively
beneficial. As yet I have had no response.

I do know now that moving range charts work very well, but that
administrators who have other things on their minds don't. But I do sense
that there is a rebirth of discussion of quality wherever I go, possibly due
to the current fiscal crises in so many state and local governments who have
not had to deal with the implications before.

As for myself, I am continuing to learn from such minds as Shewhart and
Deming, and Wheeler and Neave, and the many others who contribute to the
exchanges herein. Though dimly lit, I hope to keep the bulb flickering as
long as possible. If only others would, or could, do the same.

Could any of you project ten years into the future as to the state of the
country's budget? Sorry, my papers are slipping out of my folder.
________________
John Constantine
thesfg1@cox.net
Phoenix, AZ