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Asignable vs. Common Cause in today's headlines
- Subject: Asignable vs. Common Cause in today's headlines
- From: TQNELSON@aol.com
- Date: Fri, 23 Jul 2004 18:58:39 EDT
There are two issues in our headlines, recently, that directly relate to th=
teachings of Dr. W. Edwards Deming.
1. First, this is not intended as a "political" issue so let's not indulge=20
on political rhetoric, but rather look at the underlying Deming principles T=
hat=20
said, we all know that this is a time of true challenge for us as Americans,=
=20
both nationally and internationally, in many fields. The recent issuance of=20
the Senate report on our U.S. Security System is an excellent example.
I, personally, find it fascinating that nowhere else (to my knowledge) than=
=20
in this report=A0 have we also seen such strong proof of the validity of th=
e=20
teachings of Dr. Deming, especially as related to his Theory of the System=20
of=20
Profound Knowledge (SoPK) as it helps us to distinguishing between=20
Assignable/Specific Causes of Variation vs. System/Common Causes of=20
Variation.
=20
The incident/variation, of course, that we are addressing/that "kicked off"=
=20
this cycle, is the "9/11 Terrorist Attack" on New York and Washington D.C.=20
Since that time we have seen one "leader" after another identify "who to=20
blame"/punish for this incident, i.e., we have see them identify the=20
"assignable/specific cause" so "appropriate" corrective action could be take=
n.
=20
All understandable, until now when the Senate report clearly=20
demonstrates/proves there was NO assignable cause. The 9/11 event=A0 can be=20=
directly attributed=20
to multiple elements that form a common/system basis for its cause. This als=
o=20
illustrates that there can be no valid corrective action treating that=20
nonexistent assignable/special cause. The report validly recommends, not=20
"assignable/special" actions to correct the problem/prevent recurrence, but=20=
changes to the=20
system itself to correct common/system-based problems and that, unless we=20
move to such a position, we will directly cause even worse events in the fut=
ure.
=20
To phrase it differently, unless we adopt Dr. Deming's SoPK we will continue=
=20
"tampering," and can only make it worse.
=20
2. Almost at the same time we have another, nearly identical illustration=20
(though of a much less serious nature) of our societal failure to understand=
the=20
essence=20
of the SoPK and Dr. Deming's teachings by, again, mis-assigning the cause of=
=A0=20
variation, here, in this case, in our recent Olympic trials.
Specifically, we see in our treatment of the Olympic Track and Field Trials=20
that we again=20
treated all the "variation" in the races/contests as due to=20
"assignable/special=20
causes," and passed out/awarded medals to those "assignable causes" that=20
finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd.=A0=20
=20
But, as was pointed out in a news article (reference=20
http://www.sacbee.com/content/sports/trials/story/9902878p-10825077c.html),=20
"Genetics makes up about 50% of the success equation" we, basically, were,=20
once again, "tampering," by confusing system vs. special causes.
So, we can see the need for Dr. Deming's approach across our society. And th=
initial reaction to such a suggestion? Just like the reaction to most change=
denial!
Well, fellow "Denizens," what are we prepared to do about it?
Del Nelson
American River College
When "We, the people......"
Are replaced by dollars, profits and greed,
It is time to start over!
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