Management theories*

[David Kerridge <dfkerridge@mac.com>]

The discussion by John Pryor and others raises many interesting points.
First, why are management "gurus" so influential?  Or at least, able to
command very high lecture fees.

I don't like the term "guru", but it is difficult to know other word to
use. I am trying to distinguish between the "authority" who is heard
because he is persuasive, and someone who is a scientist, using hard
facts and evidence. Dr Shewhart and Dr Deming were as far from what I
mean by "guru" as you can imagine. Their message is neither eye-catching
nor instantly appealing - unless you misunderstand it.

I will use Tom Peters as an illustration of a "guru" because I saw him
interviewed on BBC television. The interviewer said:

"In your book you refer to 'experiments'. Are these experiments you have
actually done?"

"No", he replied, "they explain what *would* happen if I did do them."

The interviewer then asked:     "So how do you validate your theories?" 

He answered:        "By the light in the eyes of the audience."


Strange? Not really. There is nothing wrong with imaginary experiments.
Albert Einstein imagined himself riding on a light wave - and discovered
Special Relativity. And he discovered the curvature of space by
imagining a physics laboratory inside a runaway lift.

Equally, when someone puts into clear words the experience and knowledge
of others, it is very useful. Much of the time, under the pressure of
events, we rely on unclear and unconscious theories. When a theory is
clearly stated, we can use it better - and it can be tested. 

The problem is that few theories express an absolute truth. A statement
is normally true in some senses, and not others, and is true within a
limited range of circumstances. We must also know how to test a theory.
Without Shewhart's new science of variation, this is virtually
impossible.

As WED used to say: "Every theory is true in its own world. The question
is, which world are we in?" If we also remember to ask - as WED so often
did "What is your aim?" Then the reason why different experts arrive at
different conclusions becomes clearer.