RE: prediction

["Dirk van Putten" <dvanputten@linear.com>]

Begin snip< We see now how the person, or to be more precise the mind, is
central to Lewis’ thesis and we should note the important premise that data
do not interpret themselves.  It is a human activity, or process, of arguing
from past to the future with the help of probability-judgments.    Lewis
helps define this process:
“the statistical prediction of the future from the past cannot be invalid,
because what-ever is future to any given past, is in turn past to some
future.  That is, whoever continually revises his judgment of the
probability of a statistical generalization by its successively observed
verifications and failures, cannot fail to make more successful predictions
than if he should disregard the past in his anticipations of the future.
This might be called the ‘Principle of statistical accumulation’.  It is
quite evident that it holds even with respect to what is determined ‘pure
chance’ – in the only sense in which we conceive anything such.  This is
what is meant by saying that probability or chance is measured by that
fraction which is approximated ‘in the long run’ (Lewis, 1929:386).
So clearly arguing from past to future, which is the basis of prediction, is
a human activity and relative to experience and the person or person’s mind
involved.  The principle of statistical accumulation is an interesting
concept that Lewis expands on to some degree to show how even in extreme
circumstances we are able to make sense of data in the long run.> End Snip

Hello All:

Is the above description different than the Funnel Experiment where the
funnel location is adjusted based on the location of the last marble? "That
is, whoever continually revises his judgment of the probability of a
statistical generalization by its successively observed verifications and
failures, cannot fail to make more successful predictions than if he should
disregard the past in his anticipations of the future." In my amateur
opinion, the Funnel Experiment identifies problems with continually revising
our judgment based on observed verifications and failures. But at the same
time, Dr. Wilcox's posting seems valid to me. Prediction is a human activity
based on our relative experiences.

Thank you, Dirk van Putten