SV: prediction

[Øgland - Petter <petter.ogland@skatteetaten.no>]

Dr Mark Wilcox:

>"The successful quality control engineer, like the successful research
worker, is not a pure reason machine but instead is a biological unit
reacting to and acting upon an ever changing environment" (Shewhart:38).  
>This fascinating description highlights the role of the mind in managing an
organisation in >flux with the use of statistical data and control charts.

Kevin Kelly ("Out of control", Addison-Wesly: New York, 1994, pp. 420-449)
makes some similar summary thoughts related to prediction and "chaos
theory".  In particular, he attacks Dana Meadow's Limits To Growth model,
due to the fact that the model tries to predict beyond the predictive
horizon of the model.  Nevertheless, in some extremely chaotic systems,
short term prediction may be quite possible to achieve.

>From you destillation of Lewis's views on prediction and probability, would
you say that regression analysis would be simple model, consistent with the
Lewis/Shewhart view on prediction?

Petter Ogland