OLD Institute presentation on PDSA -vs- PDCA

["Jim Clauson, Breakthrough Systems" <jim@jclauson.com>]

DENizens,

Took some digging to find a 1998 email...  but I found the notes from 
a presentation Ron Moen and Ian Bradburry did at a pre-1998 Deming 
Institute conference and a 1995 Ron Moen GM talk.   These are notes taken 
from a Powerpoint  presentation - so only text descriptions of images.

====================================================================
The following presentation was made at the 6th Institute conference by
Ian Bradburry.  He is allowing me to distribute it on the DEN for
learning, sharing, and discussion.  If you wish to use it outside the
context of the DEN or personal learning, please contact Ian for
permission.

ARE PDSA AND PDCA THE SAME?

The main reference that I have drawn upon is a collection of references
put together by Ron Moen for a talk given in November l995 at GM entitled
History of PDSA, PDCA and Production Viewed as a System.

Each of the slides will present a historical view, and has discussion
questions associated with it.  Please don't read ahead.

[Slide 1 -- Origins with Shewhart, 1939]
========================================


    Step I                   Step II                Step III
------------------>    -------------------->  --------------------->
Specification            Production               Inspection

                            OLD
                            ---

(cannot do a circle - but the NEW diagram is a circular image, with the
same arrows, only circling clockwise.)
=========================================================

This is taken from page 45 of Statistical Method from the Viewpoint of
Quality Control, Walter Shewhart, l939.

Shewhart quotes C.I. Lewis:  Knowing begins and ends in experience, but
it does not end in the experience in which it begins.  He goes on to
paraphrase this as: knowledge begins and ends in experimental data, but
it does not end in the data in which is begins.

Shewhart describes the cycle as follows:

The three steps constitute a dynamic scientific process of acquiring
knowledge.  From this viewpoint, it might be better to show them forming
a sort of spiral gradually approaching a circular path which would
represent the idealized case where no evidence is found in Step III to
indicate a need for changing the specification (or scientific hypothesis)
no matter how many times we repeat the three steps.  Mass production
viewed this way constitutes a continuing and self-corrective method for
making the most efficient use of raw and fabricated materials.

>From the viewpoint of specification, it is of interest to note that for
the meaning of control to be operationally definite, not only certain
criteria of control, but also the operation of selecting the objects
whose qualities are to be tested, must be specified.

Specification (the plan) must thus satisfy the following:

It must be rational (knowledge based)
It should describe the intended end (Aim of production)
It should describe the means by which the end will be pursued (method of
production)
It should define, operationally, how to judge whether or not the end has
been accomplished using the specific means (method of inspection)

How is the knowledge which provides a basis for specification made
subject to experience in such a view?

[Slide 2 -- Deming in 1951]
===========================

This slide has 3 graphics:
        o  The upper left is similar to the 3 horizontal arrows in
           Slide #1 - but labeled: 1 - Design it; 2 - Make it;
           3 - Try to sell
        o  The lower left is a circle, with 4 quarter arcs as arrows -
           labeled the New Way.
        o  The one on the upper right is a spiral - with 8 segments
           spiraling outward, numbered 1-4 and 1-4 again.

Slide 2 text:

1.  Design the product with appropriate tests.
2.  Make it, test it in the production line and in the laboratory.
3.  Put it on the market.
4.  Test it in service, through market research, find out what the user
thinks of it, and why the non-user has not bought it.
5.  RE-design the product in light of customer reactions to quality and
price.
Continue around the cycle.
====================================================================

This was how Deming described  "The New Way" in Elementary Principles of
the Statistical Control of Quality -- series of lectures.  Tokyo: Nippon
Kaagaju Gijutsu Remmei (l951).

Of The New Way, Deming states:

In the new way, management introduces, through consumer research, a 4th
step, and runs through the four steps in a cycle, over and over

The 4th step, communication between the manufacturer and the user and the
potential user, gives the public a chance.  It gives the user a better
product, better suited to his needs, and cheaper.  Democracy in industry,
one might say.

A still better way is to begin the manufacture and marketing of a product
on a pilot scale, and to build up its production on a sound economic
basis, only as fast as market conditions indicate, redesigning the
product from time to time in the light of customer needs and reactions.
The cycle is best taken on a spiral.

What are the similarities and differences between this view and that of
Shewhart from l939?  Are the cycles at the same level?

Building knowledge for improvement

Knowledge of customer value
Knowledge of means for creating customer value
How is knowledge made subject to experience?


[Slide 3 -- How to Proceed with Control - PDCA]
===============================================

Image of a PDCA Control Cycle, with
        o  Plan
           -  Determine goals and targets
           -  Determine methods of reaching goals
        o  Do
           -  Engage in education and training
           -  Implement work
        o  Check
           -  Check the effects of the implementation
        o  Act
           -  Take appropriate action

================================================

This is taken from Ishikawa, K., l985.  What is Total Quality Control?
The Japanese Way.

Ishikawa described the cycle as follows, under the title How to proceed
with control:

Dr. Taylor used to describe control with these words, "plan--do--see."
What does the word "see" mean?  To Japanese middle school students, it
simply means to look at, and that does not convey Taylor's meaning.  So
we have rephrased it as follows:  "plan--do--check--action" (PDCA).  This
is what we call the control circle, (see slide), and it must be made to
move in the right direction.  I have found it advisable to redefine this
circle by dividing it into six categories, which have proven successful.

Ishikawa and Imai both use the terms PDCA cycle and Deming cycle
interchangeably, but identify Deming in particular with its application
at the level of Production Viewed as a System (previous slide)

Imai, in Kaizen, presents the following "Correlation between the Deming
Wheel and PDCA cycle":

Design ---->Plan        Product design corresponds to the planning phase
                        of management

Production --->Do       Production corresponds to doing -- making --, or
                        working on -- the product that was designed.

Sales --->Check         Sales figures confirm whether the customer is
                        satisfied.

Research --->Action     In case a complaint is filed, it has to be
                        incorporated into the planning phase, and
                        positive steps (action) taken for the next round
                        of efforts.  Action here refers to action for
                        improvement.

Is this PDCA?

Adaptation - Control theory view

How is knowledge made subject to experience in PDCA?  Which knowledge?



[Slide 4 -- Reaction to "that corruption"]
==========================================
Image of the PDSA Cycle with:
        o  PLAN - plan a change or test aimed at improvement
        o  DO   - carry out the change or the test (preferably on a
                  small scale.)
        o  STUDY- study the results. What did we learn?  What went wrong?
        o  ACT  - adopt the change, or abandon it, or run through the
                  cycle again.

A flow diagram for learning and for improvement of a product or of a
process.  Page 132, The New Economics
==========================================

In his seminars from late l989, Deming provided a version of what he
called The Shewart Cycle for Learning and Improvement which were of the
form shown here from The New Economics, 2ed, (l993).  This was developed
in reaction to having described PDCA as a "corruption".

Does this convey the essential elements for leaning and improvement?

Improvement:  movement towards an intended end (goal)
Learning:  revision of knowledge through test in use

On page l02 of The New Economics, 2ed Deming states that:

The theory of knowledge teaches that a statement, if it conveys
knowledge, predicts future outcome, with risk of being wrong, and that it
fits without failure observations of the past.

Rational prediction requires theory and builds knowledge through
systematic revision and extension of theory based on comparison of
prediction with observation.

In the clarifying text immediately surrounding the PDSA cycle, Deming
refers to the comparison of rational prediction with observation or
measurement in the study phrase indirectly in use of the term
expectations:

Step 3.  STUDY.  Study the results.  Do they correspond with hopes and
expectations?  If not, what went wrong?

Is  the PDSA cycle essentially different from the PDCA cycle?


[Slide 5 -- A Clarification of PDSA]
====================================
Image of the PDSA Cycle, with:

        o  PLAN - Aim (goal(s))
                - Changes for Improvement
                - Rationale or Assumptions
                - Rational predictions
                - Method of observation or measurement
        o  DO   - Carry out the plan
        o  STUDY- Compare results with prediction(s)
        o  ACT  - Revise theory if required
                - Compare results with goal(s)
================================================================

The PDSA cycle starts in the Planning stage with consideration of the
question "What are we trying to accomplish?*" to establish the context
and aim for improvement.  The Plan consists of four components:

l.  Changes which can be made that we predict will bring about the
improvement.

2.  The reasons we believe the changes will bring improvement, any
assumptions we are making and the reasoning behind the assumptions --
this is our theory, no matter how tentative or improbable.

3.  Prediction of what results we will get from carrying out the planned
changes, based on our theory.

4.  A method of observation or measurement that can be used to see
whether the actual results of carrying out the plan were as predicted.

In the Do stage, the planned change(s) is carried out and the results are
observed or measured.

The Study stage involves comparison of the results observed in the Do
stage with the predictions made in the Planning stage.  There are two
possibilities:

l.  The observed results and predictions do not correspond.  This
provides an opportunity to learn since we have cause to revise the theory
used as a basis for the plan.  It could be that the reasoning behind the
prediction that the planned changes would bring abut improvement is in
need of revision.  It could be that the reasoning behind the assumptions
that were made is in need of revision.

2.  The observed results and predictions do correspond.  We do not have
cause to revise the theory used for the plan, which increases our degree
of belief in the theory's usefulness.  It does not, however, prove the
theory to be true since the future may always present cause for revision.

In the Act stage the theory is revised (acted upon), is such a need were
indicated in the Study stage, thereby providing a new foundation for any
future cycles. The results achieved are also considered relative to the
aim established in the Planning stage to determine whether further
opportunity for improvement is needed.  If so, the next PDSA cycle starts
with an answer to "What are we trying to accomplish?" that has adapted to
past performance.


* This question is taken from the API Model for Improvement.
=================  END TEXT by Ian Bradburry & Ron Moen ==============