Re: FW: Where is the Evidence?

[Myron Tribus <mtribus@scaup.prod.itd.earthlink.net>]

The post by W Mack is very much to the point.  When I heard Dr. Deming
around 1980 quoting Juran, and calling it Juran's rule, that "85% of the
problems are due to the system" I understood the number to be a personal
assignment of probability, nothing more.

This brings me to an announcement:  My book, "Rational Descriptions,
Decisions and Designs" is now available in reprint form from Expira, a
Swedish Publisher.  You can order it by going to this website:

http://www.expira.se

I do not promise you an easy read.  Digging into the fundamentals is never
soft going. But the book does wrestle well with the question, "What do you
mean by the word 'probability'?"

The connection to the post by W. Mack is this:  The very definition of
probability determines how you interpret Dr. Deming's statement.   Does p =
"the frequency of occurrence"?   Does p = "The ratio of favorable to total
outcomes"?  Does p = "A statement of personal belief"?   Does p = "In the
long run, the frequency will approach 85%"   When someone says, "85% of the
time..." does he mean "85% of the observations?"     Was Dr. Deming
engaging in the use of "warm fuzzy statements"?

Myron Tribus,  350 Britto Terrace,  Fremont, CA 94539
Phone:(510) 651 3641  Fax:(510) 656 9875   e-mail: mtribus@earthlink.net
A man convinced against his will, is of the same opinion still.

Moderator's Note: This is obviously an exception to the "Self-Promotion"
guideline we have on the DEN.  It is great to have Myron's book 
available again after all these years.  The Expira name should also be
familiar to DENizens.
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